Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 37.724333 40.882703 44.350570 48.473626 53.286308 58.783187 65.621205
2025-06-22 33.051092 37.191599 42.050838 48.287702 56.258562 66.377285 80.692730
2025-06-29 29.910767 34.429743 39.955515 47.408471 57.544733 71.451428 93.265706
2025-07-06 27.371565 31.998169 37.818893 45.953434 57.541499 74.438430 103.350253
2025-07-13 26.466689 31.471419 37.970911 47.431860 61.674440 84.087708 127.212060
2025-07-20 25.566946 30.832958 37.856345 48.446062 65.197125 93.530623 155.063655
2025-07-27 24.678040 30.113881 37.529002 49.055836 68.117497 102.630907 187.556013
2025-08-03 23.635274 29.096690 36.674434 48.734066 69.391030 108.962327 217.948560
2025-08-10 22.524360 27.908308 35.472655 47.724252 69.282153 112.466251 243.426066
2025-08-17 21.527420 26.820974 34.339094 46.704079 68.988395 115.494704 270.525406
2025-08-24 20.725023 25.965936 33.491399 46.065093 69.299563 119.977563 308.511709
2025-08-31 19.868603 24.990675 32.402552 44.926128 68.490069 121.599504 337.252675
2025-09-07 19.682069 24.994093 32.828248 46.440738 73.262227 139.225219 488.111741
2025-09-14 19.116584 24.411988 32.309359 46.263028 74.546088 148.136424 624.738372
2025-09-21 18.456981 23.658615 31.475050 45.444617 74.323309 152.577159 751.523588
2025-09-28 17.730517 22.776022 30.390541 44.088684 72.731139 152.234360 831.193108
2025-10-05 17.618887 22.812851 30.778293 45.466397 77.557156 175.666055 1640.086262
2025-10-12 17.423720 22.710724 30.929583 46.410312 81.572273 199.355191 4468.317333
2025-10-19 17.168117 22.502393 30.889917 46.977363 84.781819 222.682160 60766.116800
2025-10-26 16.773211 22.060695 30.433918 46.678181 85.693735 236.444167 NaN
2025-11-02 16.289519 21.463340 29.687269 45.738625 84.744833 240.339593 NaN
2025-11-09 15.828984 20.888911 28.957675 44.788453 83.651919 243.125664 NaN
2025-11-16 15.451461 20.434777 28.417034 44.192809 83.481817 251.444951 NaN